Henry Hub Horizons
The five-year storage average stopped describing the system you're trading in.
The most-cited number in weekly gas commentary stopped describing the system it's supposed to evaluate. What replaces the 5-year storage average.
Notes
Event coverage, weekly commentary, and structural analysis on the U.S. natural gas market.
Henry Hub Horizons
LNG Canada pulls west, not south. The Henry Hub signal is the Phase 2 FID, not the plant.
A new Pacific export sink looks Henry Hub bullish. The gas is additive Montney supply, the signal is Western Canadian, and the lever is a pending FID.
Henry Hub Horizons
Both policy levers are muted. The Henry Hub band is wider than the policy-floor framework predicts.
Policy is supposed to bound the Henry Hub band. With both levers idle, the transmission mechanism is muted and the band runs wider than the floor implies.
Henry Hub Horizons
Storage enters summer 144 Bcf above the five-year average. Whether it stays there is a demand-stack question.
Storage enters summer 144 Bcf above the five-year average. EIA says it ends the season above; NGSA says below. The injection season is the referee.
Henry Hub Horizons
Hyperscaler gas demand is moving behind the meter. The dispatch models haven't followed.
Hyperscaler behind-the-meter gas demand is now on the order of 100 GW announced. It pulls gas from the market but not through the dispatch system traders forecast on.
ShortTherm Insight
Injection pace has cooled. The May STEO's end-October storage path is firming, not fixed.
The May STEO put end-October storage near 4,015 Bcf, 6–7% above 5-year. A heat-dome cluster through July or a Golden Pass / Corpus ramp could un-anchor the path.
Henry Hub Horizons
The 2026 hurricane outlook is below-normal. The Gulf Coast feedgas footprint isn't.
NOAA's 2026 Atlantic outlook is below-normal. The Gulf Coast LNG footprint is structurally larger than at Hurricane Laura. The asymmetry, explained.
PipeProwler Notable Event
Planned pigging on Columbia Gulf's reversed Mainline 200
Up to ~495 MDth/d of southbound Appalachian takeaway off for 8 days; EGS basis softens, HH effect marginal.
Henry Hub Horizons
EIA cut Henry Hub's 2027 forecast 41 cents in a month. The Haynesville cost stack will tell whether the revision overshot.
EIA cut HH 2027 to $3.18 in May. EIA also says Haynesville must grow +1.6 Bcf/d that year. The Haynesville cost stack will tell whether the revision overshot.
ShortTherm Insight
The bullish-mixed cooling-season setup is already in the strip. The trade is in the tail.
Consensus bullish-mixed is in the strip. The asymmetry is in heat-stack-week realized burn exceeding the 40.3 Bcf/d baseline.