PipeProwler Notable Event
Updated force majeure on ANR Pipeline's reversed Southeast Mainline
Updated FM on ANR's reversed Southeast Mainline. Gulf LNG feedgas reads bullish on supply tightening; Appalachian basis reads bearish as gas strands.
Notes
Event coverage, weekly commentary, and structural analysis on the U.S. natural gas market.
Henry Hub Horizons
Southbound molecules: Mexico's LNG buildout as Henry Hub's off-balance-sheet corridor.
U.S. gas exports run through three LNG corridors now, not one. The third, through Mexico, doesn't show up in U.S. LNG export accounting. The molecules go anyway.
ShortTherm Insight
Coal isn't retiring as planned. The summer power-burn consensus is over-stated.
2025 coal retirements missed plan by 70%. Q1 2026 looks worse. The consensus summer power-burn forecast assumes coal comes off; the data says otherwise.
Henry Hub Horizons
Permian relief, Henry Hub risk: when the marginal molecule moves locations.
Today the marginal Permian molecule prices at Waha. After the takeaway wave, it prices at Henry Hub. That migration is the structural story Permian analysis is missing.
ShortTherm Insight
The April STEO has Henry Hub 2027 at $3.59. The data since is pushing against that forecast.
EIA cut HH 2027 to $3.59 last week. Storage missed bearish today, Waha hit a record low. The May STEO doesn't land at $3.59.
Henry Hub Horizons
AI load arrives in one of two Henry Hub regimes. The BTM pipeline sits between them.
AI load makes Henry Hub power burn a two-regime question through 2030. The hinge is where the load clears, and on which side of the meter.
Henry Hub Horizons
LNG capacity through 2027: the price story is regime-dependent, the corridor story isn't.
The US is on track to add 7 Bcf/d of LNG export capacity through end-2027. The price impact depends on the regime. The corridor impact arrives regardless.