LNG Canada pulls west, not south. The Henry Hub signal is the Phase 2 FID, not the plant.

A new 2 Bcf/d export sink on the west coast reads as a structural bid under Henry Hub. Nearly a year of LNG Canada flows reads the other way: additive Montney supply, a Western Canadian price signal, and the only Henry Hub leverage in a financing decision not yet taken.

LNG Canada shipped its first cargo on July 1, 2025, and began Train 2 in November. At full Phase 1 it draws about 1.84 Bcf/d of Montney feed gas through the 2.1 Bcf/d Coastal GasLink line, which a sanctioned Phase 2 would roughly double. Woodfibre and Cedar, under construction, follow in 2027 and 2028.

The gas is not draining the U.S. balance. Most of it was never in it. Pipeline imports from Canada averaged about 8.6 Bcf/d in 2025, and the 0.3 Bcf/d of LNG it exported stacked on top, not displacing them. Western Canadian output set records, and the Canada Energy Regulator assumes about three-quarters of LNG feed gas is dedicated new production. EIA models imports easing from about 8.6 to 8.0 Bcf/d by 2027, split between west-coast LNG demand and Appalachia backing out the Northeast.

Where the sink registers is Western Canadian price. AECO basis to Henry Hub sank to among its weakest on record in 2025, and day-ahead AECO turned negative that September. Southbound takeaway already runs at capacity, so the surplus clears west by price, not as fresh volume to the Gulf. The Permian taught this at Waha: location prices the molecule before the benchmark does, and this one prices at Sumas, Malin, and AECO.

Net of what the U.S. ships back north, Canada's pipeline cushion runs near 6 Bcf/d against U.S. dry gas production above 107 and LNG exports alone north of 16. Henry Hub answers to storage, Gulf Coast feed gas, and power burn, and a 0.6 Bcf/d import trim is a rounding error. Any cold-week pinch lands in the West, not at Henry Hub. What matters sits in the FID stack. LNG Canada Phase 2 and Ksi Lisims, about 3.5 Bcf/d between them, are both unsanctioned. Ksi Lisims drew fresh offtake interest and shed two legal challenges earlier this month, and Phase 2 targets a year-end 2026 decision.

A plant the balance has already absorbed is not the Henry Hub event. A signature on Phase 2 financing is. Watch the FID stack, not the cargo count.