ShortTherm Insight
Injection pace has cooled. The May STEO's end-October storage path is firming, not fixed.
The May STEO put end-October storage near 4,015 Bcf, 6–7% above 5-year. A heat-dome cluster through July or a Golden Pass / Corpus ramp could un-anchor the path.
EIA's May STEO put end-October 2026 working gas near 4,015 Bcf, roughly 6 to 7% above the five-year average depending on baseline window. The first weekly print after the STEO landed at 101 Bcf, above the 95 Bcf consensus. Against the trailing four-week pace, that is one above-average week behind a softer May, not yet a regime shift.
The trajectory:
- Storage 2,391 Bcf (May 15), +149 Bcf (6.6%) above the five-year average, +33 Bcf above year-ago.
- Trailing four-week injections (April 24 through May 15) averaged 82 Bcf, against a same-window five-year average in the high-70s.
- Surplus widened from +4.0% (March 31) to +7.7% (April 24), then eased to +6.6% as May cooled.
- Curve has December 2026 (NGZ26) near $4.05 against a prompt under $3; the contango is consistent with the STEO's above-average surplus, with LNG and Hormuz premia also priced in.
April injections ran above the five-year average, on a backdrop of near-record production and record LNG feedgas per AGA Indicators. May has moderated: May 1 missed consensus, May 8 was on pace, May 15 came in above pace and was the first print after the May STEO.
Landing at 4,015 Bcf requires roughly 1,625 Bcf from May 15 to October 31, about 68 Bcf per week. EIA's full-season average runs 63–64 Bcf per week, so the required pace sits modestly above the seasonal norm given the +6.6% starting surplus. That puts end-October inside a plausible 4,000 to 4,100 Bcf band, with the call near the center.
What un-anchors it: a heat-dome cluster through July that lifts power burn above the STEO baseline, or a Golden Pass Train 2 or Corpus Stage 3 ramp that pulls feedgas above the implied schedule. Neither is the base case from current data.
December 2026 is already pricing a comfortable surplus. The next two weekly prints are the key: a return to April's pace would push the end-October landing toward the top of the band and pressure the contract lower, while continued May-style moderation locks in the STEO path.