Henry Hub Horizons
The five-year storage average stopped describing the system you're trading in.
The most-cited number in weekly gas commentary stopped describing the system it's supposed to evaluate. What replaces the 5-year storage average.
Storage
Henry Hub Horizons
Storage enters summer 144 Bcf above the five-year average. Whether it stays there is a demand-stack question.
Storage enters summer 144 Bcf above the five-year average. EIA says it ends the season above; NGSA says below. The injection season is the referee.
ShortTherm Insight
Injection pace has cooled. The May STEO's end-October storage path is firming, not fixed.
The May STEO put end-October storage near 4,015 Bcf, 6–7% above 5-year. A heat-dome cluster through July or a Golden Pass / Corpus ramp could un-anchor the path.
ShortTherm Insight
The bullish-mixed cooling-season setup is already in the strip. The trade is in the tail.
Consensus bullish-mixed is in the strip. The asymmetry is in heat-stack-week realized burn exceeding the 40.3 Bcf/d baseline.
ShortTherm Insight
The April STEO has Henry Hub 2027 at $3.59. The data since is pushing against that forecast.
EIA cut HH 2027 to $3.59 last week. Storage missed bearish today, Waha hit a record low. The May STEO doesn't land at $3.59.