ShortTherm Insight
The April STEO has Henry Hub 2027 at $3.59. The data since is pushing against that forecast.
EIA cut HH 2027 to $3.59 last week. Storage missed bearish today, Waha hit a record low. The May STEO doesn't land at $3.59.
EIA's April 7 STEO cut Henry Hub 2027 to $3.59. That's the fourth consecutive monthly cut, taking the cumulative trim from January's $4.59 to $1.00 in ninety days. The data visible since the STEO cutoff is running bearish to that forecast.
What's printed since:
- Storage 1,970 Bcf (week ending April 10), +59 Bcf injection against ~51 Bcf consensus, a modestly bearish miss. Surplus to 5-year widened to ~108 Bcf.
- Waha settled at a record low today near -$9.50/MMBtu. Permian associated-gas overhang continues.
- Prompt month broke to $2.60 on April 14, a five-month low.
- Haynesville still has DUC inventory to respond if prices bounce (149 wells across five major producers), which gives the supply curve an elastic edge on the upside and limits how far a recovery can run.
The structural setup against the STEO is clear. Q1 2026 marketed production ran 120.2 Bcf/d, already above the STEO's full-year 2026 average. LNG feedgas hit a record 20.1 Bcf/d earlier in the month, but the record feedgas print is not a new bullish surprise; it is already embedded in the forecast. The supply-side data trajectory is confirming faster than the demand-side.
The May STEO is likely to cut HH 2027 again, into the low-$3s, consistent with the current bearish supply trend. If the May STEO confirms this bearish bias, the window for a structural floor re-test in the low-$3s opens wider.
What invalidates it: a heat-dome forecast strengthening into June that lifts the cooling-demand assumption, an LNG outage at Plaquemines or Corpus that softens feedgas, or a TTF/JKM spike that pulls netbacks higher. None visible today.